2026 Solar Lease vs Buy vs PPA Calculator
Is Solar Still Worth It in 2026? Lease vs Buy vs PPA
The federal residential solar tax credit ended in December 2025. That changes the math for cash and loan buyers, but lease and PPA structures still pass through the commercial-side credit. Plug in your numbers and see which path actually wins for you.
Cost of doing nothing
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25 years of grid bills at 3% annual rate inflation. Every path below is competing against this number.
How these numbers were calculated
Estimates use state-level peak sun hours, typical 2026 installed cost of $2,800 per kilowatt, a system derate factor of 0.78, and 3% annual electricity rate inflation. Loan terms assume 20 years at 6.99% APR with $0 down. Lease terms assume $13 per kilowatt of system size per month with a 2.5% annual escalator. PPA terms assume $0.11 per kilowatt-hour produced with a 2.9% annual escalator. The federal residential solar tax credit (Section 25D) ended December 31, 2025. Cash and loan buyers no longer claim it. Lease and PPA providers can still claim the commercial Section 48 credit (30% in 2026, phasing down) and pass the savings through to you as lower monthly payments. Real quotes will vary with roof orientation, shading, equipment, lender pricing, and state-specific incentives.
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Not tax advice. The federal residential clean energy credit (Section 25D) ended for systems placed in service after December 31, 2025. State and local incentives change. See IRS guidance on Section 25D. Always confirm with a qualified tax professional before relying on any tax-credit figure. Last reviewed: 2026-05-08.
Estimates use state-level averages. Real quotes will vary with roof orientation, shading, equipment selected, lender pricing, lease company terms, PPA escalator, and state and utility-specific incentives.
Data last updated 2026-05-08 Refreshed daily from EIA & NREL